Proliferation and Terrorism Risk Assessment

The objective of the PTRA program is to develop new tools and approaches for understanding, limiting, and managing the risks of proliferation and physical security for fuel cycle options. NE, in collaboration with National Nuclear Security Administration, will focus on assessments required to inform domestic fuel cycle technology and system option development, partnering with other organizations to share results of assessments. These analytical/predictive tools for comprehensive proliferation risk assessments will provide important information for discussions and decisions regarding fuel cycle options. These assessments will:

• Exploit science-based approaches for analyzing difficult-to-quantify proliferation risk factors or indicators (e.g., capabilities, motivations and intentions); address issues identified in several National Academy of Sciences studies related to risk assessment; and leverage current state-of-the-art academic research in this field.


• Evaluate the diverse decision factors (including economics, public health and safety, public perceptions, environmental benefits and proliferation and terrorism risk reduction) for different fuel cycle options to understand the tradeoffs and potential synergies between these decision criteria.


• Apply these tools to study nuclear energy system options and display the results in a useful format for decision makers.

FY 2012 planned Accomplishments:

• Initiate studies of current risk assessment methodologies focusing on prototype scenarios and ensuring coordination with other national security methodologies and entities