OUR HISTORY — BOTH our American history and our nuclear history — is characterized both by slow forces that bring change over long periods and by rapid leaps that either through visionary leadership or by necessity bring about completely new paradigms that change all that comes after.

Often, events that shape the nation are the very same events that have shaped the development of nuclear technology. World War II and the events since that time saw the United States, a nation that by reflex and temperament was content to focus on matters within its borders, assume the leadership of the Western world.

Nuclear technology grew up with American internationalism and industrial preeminence. It is forever shaped by its role at the center of the Manhattan Project, the Cold War that followed, and the Atoms for Peace programs of the 1950s and 1960s.

It was shaped by visionaries like Adm. Hyman Rickover and Glenn Seaborg, and evolutionary forces such as economics and changing public perceptions of science, government, and environment. Today, evolution and revolution continue to proceed together to shape events. The evolving perspectives of the world's nations on environmental issues; the dramatic changes that accompanied the end of the Cold War; and the growing uncertainties and historic changes in energy supply interact to shape nuclear technology's role in the world. There is no reason to expect the future dynamic to be different.

We do not pretend to know the future; predictions and projections over the long term are famously unreliable--particularly in the energy arena. Nevertheless, we can see the formation of the forces that will shape the next few decades:

1. Globalization — It is perhaps one of the most overused terms at the end of this 20th century, but nonetheless a major force that will prompt change in many sectors of economics and politics. For nuclear energy, globalization has already had huge impacts. The suppliers of nuclear technology have rapidly consolidated and the utilities that implement energy technologies are not far behind. There now appear to be three main blocks of suppliers in the world; further consolidation is likely. On the utility side, international alliances and ownership relationships are already occurring. Thus far, the market for nuclear technology is still a country-by-country market. If the market is to mature and thrive in the next century, it must become global as well.
2. The rise of the developing world — For the first time in the history of the world, it is possible to envision a realistic course by which, in a relatively short period, most of the world's people will enjoy modern conveniences such as electricity, instead of merely a fortunate few. The rapid modernization in Asia and the maturing democracies of Latin America will place demands on the world's energy resources that will far outstrip past experience. Efficiency of energy use will be critical for these countries, as will extensive use of renewable energy resources. But their industrial aspirations will require significant deployment of baseload power plants. This represents a major new opportunity for nuclear power, one that already accounts for much of the near-term growth in its use.
3. The expansion of free markets — The expanded dominance of free-market economics and decision-making is reshaping the world in a myriad of ways, in both the developing world and the industrialized world. In many parts of the world, centralized planning is giving ground to economics, even in the business of U.S. electric utilities. The cost of providing electricity will determine what technologies are successful. Government policies, preferences, and goals that are not directly prescriptive or do not have a direct impact on cost will be overwhelmed by the desire of energy providers to be reliable, cost-effective providers of electricity.
4. National and international environmental issues — The market forces, as always, will be tempered by government regulation. Environmental rules are likely to evolve over the coming decades as public concern over air quality and climate change intensify. It is impossible to predict what shape these government policies will take in the future. In many countries, they are already acting to discourage construction of new power plants (of any kind). As power costs rise and reliability suffers, these policies will come under increased scrutiny. As countries adapt their rules to allow for growth in supply while minimizing harm to the environment, the window of opportunity for nuclear power will open wider. At the same time, however, how nations deal with nuclear waste will be a key environmental issue in the future. It is popularly understood that dealing successfully with spent fuel disposition is required if a new generation of nuclear plants is to become a reality. For many countries, this will become an international issue as the subject of regional high-level waste repositories is explored.
5. The post-Cold War world — Overlying many of the preceding issues, the aftermath of the Cold War will continue to have an impact on nuclear energy. With the end of the Cold War, government uranium and plutonium inventories are being released for commercial use. The implications are proving to be significant. The fragile nuclear fuel market is faltering, and concerns about the potential that fissile materials could fall into the wrong hands are growing. Further, the Cold War discipline of a bipolar world is being replaced by a much more complicated structure that finds some nations in turmoil and other nations going their own way on issues of concern to the international community. In this challenging environment, the construction of new nuclear power plants throughout the world presents a complicating factor for many analysts concerned about the proliferation of nuclear materials. Ignoring these concerns could be fatal to any effort to expand the use of nuclear energy in industrializing nations.

   The future of nuclear energy will be shaped by these forces. Recognizing them will help us define a vision for the next generation of nuclear power systems and enable us to lay the groundwork for activities that can assure the ability of nuclear technology to meet the challenges of the future. While we cannot predict the future, we can see that there is an opportunity to shape it.

   Role of the DOE
   The future of nuclear energy in the United States and in the world depends upon a variety of agents performing their roles well:

   • Utilities must continue to operate current, second-generation plants in a highly safe and cost-effective manner while staying abreast of new technological developments and maintaining an option to build new plants in the future.
   • Industry must continue to innovate, making its current third-generation plant products as cost-effective as possible while remaining interested in advanced research for the long-term.
   • Governments must support the efforts of all other parties to the extent appropriate while supporting both intermediate-term and long-term research and development and assuring that a research and educational infrastructure exists to support future plants.
   • In particular, government regulators must continue to oversee the safety of nuclear technology effectively, without imposing unneeded burdens on industry that force the unnecessary closure of existing plants or discourage consideration of new plants.

   Over the last decade, utilities, industry, and even regulatory organizations all over the world have carried out their respective tasks well. Some governments have also done well in upholding their technology development roles — notably, Japan and France have pursued vigorous long-term research activities. In the United States, the nonregulatory government role has been less successful. During the 1990s and particularly after the completion of the Advanced Light Water Reactor program in 1997, the U.S. Department of Energy found itself uncertain as to its role in nuclear technology and lacking a clear direction.

   The Department — key support and guidance of key members of the Senate (such as New Mexico's Pete Domenici) and the House of Representatives (notably, Joe Knollenberg, of Michigan), the Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee (NERAC), the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, and others — has set its nuclear technology program on a far clearer path. The Department has increased its support for advanced nuclear technology significantly over the last two years, beginning several new programs, and we hope to increase this support further in the future. In addition, the DOE has begun to deal aggressively with the declining nuclear R&D infrastructure in the United States and the endangered nuclear technology education base. We have also reached out successfully to the international community to reestablish our ties with the international nuclear research community and leverage our efforts with those of other governments.

   In these endeavors, the importance of the hard work of NERAC cannot be overestimated. It has led the way with the creation of a comprehensive Long-Term Nuclear Technology Research and Development Plan and the invaluable Nuclear Science and Technology Infrastructure Roadmap. These studies, with the timely recommendations contained in the report, "The Future of University Nuclear Engineering Programs and University Research and Training Reactors," form much of the basis of the R&D and infrastructure work the Department plans to address over the coming years. Finally, our consideration of next-generation nuclear energy systems will be informed by the work completed by the Task Force on Technology Opportunities for Increasing the Proliferation Resistance of Global Civilian Nuclear Power Systems, or TOPS. All of these reports are available to the public on the Department's nuclear technology Web site, www.nuclear.gov.

   Perhaps most important, the DOE is also actively engaged in leading a new consideration of nuclear energy. Our Generation IV initiative has captured the attention of the nuclear community all over the world.

   In late August, senior representatives from interested countries (thus far Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, and the United Kingdom have been engaged in these discussions, but several others are very interested in joining) met in Seoul, Republic of Korea, to discuss how the world's governments might work together to support advanced research to usher forth next-generation nuclear power systems. We have also discussed useful, supporting roles for the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, both of which have sent senior representatives to attend these meetings.

   These discussions have been fruitful and have led to specific proposals that each nation is now considering. As important as these discussions have been, they represent only one aspect of the effort that will be required. In general, government researchers can be neither the implementers nor even the primary developers of new nuclear energy technologies; electric utilities, the nuclear industry, and regulators will all serve decisive roles in the advent of Generation IV systems.

   The Department will engage all these parties in wide-ranging discussions about the next steps in the development of nuclear energy plants. We expect to use a Generation IV Technology Roadmap to accomplish this.

   Generation IV roadmap
   We plan, between now and perhaps early in 2002, to develop a comprehensive technology roadmap that defines paths to two types of advanced nuclear technology systems:

   • Advanced "Generation III+" systems that can be deployed before the end of the decade (i.e., by 2010).
   • Generation IV systems that can be deployed by 2030.

   It is clear that Generation III and Generation III+ technologies, largely made up of advanced water-cooled reactors and some advanced gas reactor technologies, are already competitive in many parts of the world today. Some, we believe, can even be competitive in the United States and in Europe if some institutional issues can be addressed successfully. Therefore, to the extent that institutional issues serve as the key barriers to new plants, the roadmap is needed to address these issues instead of technological considerations.

   We anticipate that industry will provide substantial leadership for this aspect of the effort. The Department's role, in this case, is more limited because of the proximity of these technologies to the market. Organizations such as the Nuclear Energy Institute and the Electric Power Research Institute are already discussing the subject of next nuclear plants with their members.

   While some technology issues exist, the focus will be on issues such as how to assure appropriate regulatory approaches for the future — including financial, economic, and legal as well as safety regulation. If done correctly, progress in these areas will make Generation III+ systems more successful and at the same time pave the way for Generation IV.

   But the role of government is more naturally suited to the development of long-term, high-risk technologies. The Department's Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) has been very successful in exploring new, innovative concepts for advanced nuclear energy technologies that can address the key issues facing the long-term viability and expansion of nuclear power, including the need to reduce and deal satisfactorily with nuclear wastes; improving economic performance; further advancing safety of nuclear power generation; and addressing lingering issues associated with the proliferation of fissile materials. Nevertheless, the research agenda promoted by NERI — which includes innovations such as reactor systems that produce hydrogen, small, modular reactors with lifetime fuel loads, and other creative approaches — is intended to promote research and development and innovation and not to complete full system designs or even propose a particular design approach.

   For that, another step is needed. To begin to consider the development of next-generation nuclear energy systems, we have established the Generation IV initiative. Through the Generation IV Technology Roadmap, the Department — working closely with our international partners, industry, academia, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and others — will begin the difficult but necessary task of compiling a set of key technology goals for systems to be developed for the long-term future. We do not yet know the relationship these goals and attributes will have to existing and Generation III and III+ nuclear systems.

   Some believe that setting goals that cannot be achieved by current technology is a risky venture that will only place a dark cloud of inadequacy over currently available advanced water-cooled reactors and other technologies. This is an old debate given new form; throughout history conservative elements — not always without reason — have advocated evolution rather than revolution, and status quo rather than innovation. The Department held a workshop in May that highlighted this debate. Attended by an international roster of experts from laboratories, industrial and utility companies, governments, and universities from all over the world, this workshop uncovered a significant debate between these perspectives.

   While it is unclear which path the Generation IV Technology Roadmap will chart, it is clear that the complex issues facing nuclear energy are unlikely to be solved without aggressive action. Much can be obtained from the institutional changes that will be charted in the Generation III+ portion of the roadmap; but what additional benefits might be gained from more aggressive goals?

   The roadmap will begin with a meeting of a new subcommittee of NERAC, the Generation IV Technology Roadmap Subcommittee. This subcommittee will be cochaired by Prof. Neil Todreas, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Dr. Sal Levy, formerly of General Electric. Other members are drawn from industry, utilities, and academia. This subcommittee will interact with the larger research community and debate the basic issues of innovation versus conservatism and, after consultation with the larger NERAC, establish a set of technology-independent goals for Generation IV systems. The Department anticipates the full engagement of the international community in this effort, including the involvement of both industrialized and developing nations.

   These goals will be issued by the Department around the end of the year for public review and comment. Afterward, the Department will sponsor teams of experts in various areas of reactor technology (for example, water-cooled systems, liquid metal systems, gas-cooled systems, etc.) to determine the best methods and technologies to meet these goals in each area. Everything will be on the table and everything will be subject to evaluation.

   Once this is done, the most promising approaches will be selected for further definition and the research needed to fully realize each of the selected approaches will be detailed. This activity will provide the Department and the research community with a concept (or concepts) that can meet the goals set by NERAC and be available for deployment by 2030 and elucidate the research and development required to bring these concepts to fruition. At the very least, this information may serve as the basis of future NERI research ideas; at most, it may be the foundation of an integrated development program, possibly an international program involving several countries.

   The first step of this long road begins now, with the formulation of technology goals. Where the effort ends depends upon the ability and interest of all parties to see this process through to its conclusion.

   The nuclear future
   No one can say for certain that, even if all these activities are accomplished successfully, new nuclear power plants will be built in the near future. Many challenges will need to be addressed. The time is fast approaching, however, when the question of whether new plants will be built in the United States will arrive at the forefront of public debate — and likely far sooner than most people believe. The regulatory environment is favorable, Generation III technologies are proven and available, and utilities have demonstrated the willingness to make significant investments in nuclear energy, spending billions over the last year alone in acquiring existing nuclear power capacity.

   A new plant order in the United States during this decade is not out of the question. A new plant order by 2030, depending upon how environmental and other key issues are addressed, may well be inevitable.

   But whether or not the United States, with its plethora of energy options, builds new nuclear plants in the near term, it is clear that nuclear energy is a key option for many other parts of the world, particularly the industrializing world. In many countries, nuclear-generated electricity provides a unique opportunity for enhancing energy independence; reducing air emissions to preserve the environment; avoiding the construction of hugely expensive rail infrastructures to transport coal or pipelines to import natural gas; and advancing the technological and industrial infrastructures of developing economies.

   While many developing countries share these interests, the world community may be concerned about the ability of some countries to effectively regulate nuclear safety, deal with nuclear wastes, and avoid issues associated with the proliferation and protection of fissile materials. Given this, developing Generation IV systems could provide significant benefits to the countries that employ them and to the international community as a whole.

   The international discussion regarding the future of nuclear energy has been ongoing for decades and will continue for decades to come. The United States will operate nuclear power plants at least into the middle of this century. The world will continue generating electricity using nuclear fission well past that time period. Given the challenges facing the world's energy infrastructure, it is likely that nuclear technology will continue to play a role for the foreseeable future. Whether this reality is accomplished well or poorly will depend upon the vision and planning of the governments, industries, laboratories, and universities of all nations interested in the future of nuclear energy.
   
   "Reprinted with permission from the November 2000 issue of Nuclear News, published by the American Nuclear Society. All rights reserved."